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The most severe possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been detailed by experts, ranging from a searing 4C increase in average temperatures to a 2-metre surge in sea level. A separate possibility foresees a decline of 6C in temperature following the collapse of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact agriculture and energy needs.

Possible Extremes, Not Guarantees

These consequences, certain ones are connected to critical climate thresholds, are seen as improbable but plausible. The scientists explained that these models addressed a shortfall in risk assessment that had left the UK unprepared for worst-case results.

"The climate extremes we have detailed aren’t predictions, but they are credible," commented the lead researcher who led the study. "The UK has been formulating policy in the absence of the frameworks to test against worst-case scenarios. We've now provided decision-makers what they need to plan for climate outcomes they wish to avoid, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Severe Conditions Projections

A second set of dire projections details the possible scale of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These indicate that temperatures could soar in some months by up to 6C higher than the norm, while rainfall could be triple typical amounts.

The chance of the extreme scenarios happening could not be calculated due to a lack of certainty about what measures will be enacted to combat global heating and how the planet's climate will react. This research was likened to defence planning or stress tests for the banking sector.

Key Possibility Elements

• Four-Degree Warming: Worldwide averages exceeding 4C by 2100 could transpire if international cooperation breaks down or if vicious cycles like the tropical forests dying release its huge repository of carbon. This would result in extreme and prolonged heat domes and droughts hitting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A critical sea current, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is losing strength and losing stability due to global heating. A full shutdown beginning in 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Crop production would be severely challenged and water resources would be drastically changed," noted Arnell.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if glaciers in the polar regions disintegrate quickly, inundating coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this threat is already understood by infrastructure experts.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be driven up by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is drastically reduced. This paradoxical outcome occurs because tiny specks from fossil fuel combustion block solar radiation from warming the ground.

Planning for the Unthinkable

The severe models could be applied to guide the development of major projects, including expanded cities, energy plants and urban drainage systems. Awareness of these environmental threats could also hasten the drive to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

The research formulated the extreme models using a blend of observed and historical experience, digital projections and established principles. These outcomes do not take into account potential global problems like the agricultural collapse and geopolitical instability.

The project was initiated as part of a official climate resilience programme. Previous assessments have cautioned that not enough attention was being paid to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

An independent advisory body has recommended that the UK needs to "become resilient to moderate heating" and examine the threats for four degrees. Past policy documents have been described as being "inadequate" by environmental groups.

An official statement noted: "Global warming is at the center of the country's focus, both preparing for impacts and establishing itself as a clean energy superpower. It is essential that the UK is prepared for the effects."