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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Team Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test side being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries turning into extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that train approaching, rolling round the bend, and England ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.